Statistics of Space Aliens

Drake equation estimates that there should be large number of extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy because there are so many stars. How come we haven't seen any evidence of their existence?

Chance is: we might the first civilization. I ran into a very entertaining article (not been peer-reviewed) by a mathematician, Prof. Brakke at Susquehanna U: “Statistics of Space Aliens”. He used the Drake equation and some other statistical parameters of key evolution processes to estimate the interval between the formations of civilizations. The conclusion is: the lucky first civilization will have a head start on the order of 100 million years before the appearance of a second.

A period of 100 million years is just an eye blink in galactic history, but a long time for civilizations to develop. Therefore, when the beings of the second civilization begin to pick up bronze tools, the ones of the first civilization has gone through 100-million-year history––enough for them to colonize the entire galaxy!

But wait, 10,000 years have passed after our ancestors began to make metal tools, but we haven't see aliens around us (at least not too many of us). That implies we are the lucky first! Good job, my fellow human beings. Let's try to survive 100 million years and kick some aliens asses. Anyway, I think I will not be afraid to watch War of the Worlds anymore.

Giant dinosaurs were hot!

Zoologists from Univ. of Florida reported a model that predicts the body temperature of dinosaurs of difference sizes: “The model predicts that dinosaur body temperatures increased with body mass from approximately 25 °C at 12 kg (velociraptors) to approximately 41 °C at 13,000 kg (Apatosaurus).” The body temperature of a 55,000-kg brachiosaurus could be 48 °C––just beyond the upper limit for most animals (~45 °C).

Can we use this model for obesity research?

BTW, open-source journals such as PLoS are good (and free) sources of knowledge.

Stephen Hawking gets some answers to save the world

Stephen Hawking, popularly considered as the most intellectual physicist of our time, asked a simple but profound question on Yahoo! Answers on July 5^th: “How can the human race survive the next hundred years?” (Yahoo! staff added: This is the real Stephen Hawking!) After 5 days, he gets more than 20,000 answers. However, not too many of the answers mean too much. He might be disappointed his opinion of colonizing the space is not widely mentioned. Sounds like we do have problem to survive.