Statistics of Space Aliens

Drake equation estimates that there should be large number of extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy because there are so many stars. How come we haven't seen any evidence of their existence?

Chance is: we might the first civilization. I ran into a very entertaining article (not been peer-reviewed) by a mathematician, Prof. Brakke at Susquehanna U: “Statistics of Space Aliens”. He used the Drake equation and some other statistical parameters of key evolution processes to estimate the interval between the formations of civilizations. The conclusion is: the lucky first civilization will have a head start on the order of 100 million years before the appearance of a second.

A period of 100 million years is just an eye blink in galactic history, but a long time for civilizations to develop. Therefore, when the beings of the second civilization begin to pick up bronze tools, the ones of the first civilization has gone through 100-million-year history––enough for them to colonize the entire galaxy!

But wait, 10,000 years have passed after our ancestors began to make metal tools, but we haven't see aliens around us (at least not too many of us). That implies we are the lucky first! Good job, my fellow human beings. Let's try to survive 100 million years and kick some aliens asses. Anyway, I think I will not be afraid to watch War of the Worlds anymore.